why harper is winning.

While I still hold out hope that my party of choice - the Liberals - will win this Canadian election, it is likely that Stephen Harper and his Conservative party will retake the PMO. And he achieved this despite the fact that only about a third of Canadians want him in there. There are several reasons for this.

A few months after Harper became prime minister, it became clear to the mainstream media that he was a very strategic man. Every move he makes is calculated, and he maintains control over the actions of his government by restricting media communication and demanding that most decision making comes directly from the PMO.

His rise to power can be attributed in part to his efforts to "unite the right." During the Chretien years, the right-leaning political parties were weak and fractured. The Reform party was doing reasonably well, and the Progressive Conservative party (the party that was in power when Canada was formed in 1867) was on life support.

Harper made headlines with a soundbite from a speech in which he pleaded that "The West wants in" which appealed to Alberta's and its neighbours' feeling that they were being ignored by Ottawa. He could see that forming a party that represented the people of a province that was about to boom with oil would be a powerful and effective thing.

Many Canadians are appalled at the cuts that Harper has made to social programs and minority rights. On many occasions Harper has reneged on direct promises, and has blatantly reversed his stance on various issues to suit the political climate of the day.

Now, while upon even brief analysis it is clear that Harper cannot be trusted to keep promises or support the less fortunate in our population, there is wild support for him primarily in the west. Why is this? It seems counter-intuitive: these are our fellow Canadians, and we know there are good people over there because as Newfoundlanders we've sent them half our population.

The reason that Harper's leadership resonates with Albertans is because the policies he has enacted are ones that seemingly "get government out of the way" of people's lives. In other words, by ending social programs, people's tax dollars are no longer going to support people who can't support themselves and citizens are not forced into standardized (read: low-quality) services like education and health care.

Alberta has no provincial sales tax, a low unemployment rate, and high wages. This is a recipe for independent-minded folks who have at their finger tips a vast array of options on which to spend their money. There is a large population in many major centers, and due to sheer numbers there are plenty of services offered privately.

It makes no sense to many people that if a person can afford high-quality health care, for example, they cannot access it. If a person has the means to send their child to a great school, they should in no way be restricted from doing that.

Whatever one's opinion of this point of view, there are a lot of people who do not wish to give money to a government that cannot (perceived or otherwise) provide as high quality services as they can afford themselves.

Harper believes this (one assumes) and panders to those who agree. His calculated self-image and actions as PM have managed to trick those who do not closely follow the circus that is politics. Or, at least one third of them.

Take heart, at least, in the fact that we remain a left-leaning country who mostly care deeply about social justice, fairness, and equality. We are just having trouble focusing our message (four opposition parties!) as Harper was able to do.